Doug Free; “US Rhetoric Does Not Match Action”
Dear NQRNews Readers,
Today’s highlighted Commentary comes from Doug Free. His comments regard China and a perspective on the future:
The Very Wide “Say-Do Gap” of US Rhetoric and US actions Vis-a-Vis TAIWAN
BY Doug Free
BLUF: Limiting the Ukrainian attacks inside Russia models the US unwillingness to attack the Chinese mainland and gives Xi and the CCP a false sense of mainland security is leading to miscalculation and may guarantee a PRC invasion before 2025.
The current POTUS says the USA will defend Taiwan, but the US is not delivering $14Billion in arms and war material that Taiwan paid for, yes $14Billion. Some of that undelivered stuff was diverted to Ukraine.
The linked CSIS wargaming report is quite illuminating on several areas, perhaps the greatest is the assumptions about force flow and Rules of engagement.
Envision a buildup of forces as if the US are going to a picnic.
It is assumed we and our allies can flow forces into the region adequately to stymie the PRCs ability to take and hold Taiwan. That theater ballistic missiles (TBM) will do damage but not disrupt the force flowing into the region. But in all iterations of the wargame the US loses two carriers and dozens of other surface ships. In one iteration we lost over 700 aircraft.
The paradox of building forces on Japan and Guam leads to the highest losses due to concentration of forces that are then attacked by TBMs.
Rules of engagement (ROE) and the idiotic way the US fights wars.
The assumption of the CSIS wargamers is that the PRC mainland is off limits, just like we are currently restricting Ukraine from attacking Russia. The Ukrainians to their inestimable credit are doing it anyways. They understand;
1st rule in war, win.
2nd rule in war, anything is fair game.
Rule 3 Kill the other guy 1st.
Rule 4. Rules are for idiots, fight like you’re the 3rd monkey on the ramp to Noah’s ark and it’s starting to rain.
The US let the Shia militias and Iran attack US forces from sanctuary in Iran, we knew where the explosively formed penetrators were being made but never bombed it. Sadr and his militias took R and R in Iran. What lunacy!
We allowed the Taliban to recruit, train and muster in Pakistan for 20 years. We paid Pakistan 5 to 7 billion a year and they said they would go after the Taliban but instead aided and abetted them through the ISI.
Now to Taiwan and why it matters.
The openly communicated threat of attacking the PRC mainland with conventional and SOF is the only way to deter the PRC from the asinine invasion of Taiwan. The CCP is now a one-man clown show; Xi Xingping, and no one tells him the truth about anything. This lack of dissenting views is exactly what led Putin to invade Ukraine. In Russian its call ‘Vranyo’. Lying so pervasive that nothing is true.
So, our best weapon against the PRC is telling them that if you do this then it’s all on the table, especially the precious CCP staying in power. No limited goals of Taiwan autonomy. Nope, Pooh Bear is toast and the 90 million CCP members are too. Does this risk escalation? Hell yes! But if they invade isn’t “that escalated pretty quickly”? Even Ron Burgundy could see that!
In 2014 after the little green men went into Crimea, I advocated a direct US response into Ukraine to re-establish deterrence. The Pentagon and our J3 told me that was escalatory. My response (not meant as sarcasm) was the Russians just violated the Budapest agreement and invaded Ukraine, how much more escalation are we going to let happen?
Crimea was a test and we failed. Iraq was a test and we failed. Afghanistan was a test and we failed. Ukraine is a test and we are doing D minus work trending to a solid F.
In Schelling’s seminal work, “On arms and influence”, (Amazon.com: Arms and Influence.: 9780837189802: Schelling, Thomas C.: Books), he states deterrence is only credible with the demonstrated ability to compel compliance. Anne Robinson states it more for an infantryman like me. Every once in a while, you need to destroy someone to show you are serious. THE US IS GREAT AT MAKING MESSES AND SPENDING TRILLIONS BUT WINNING ISN’T EVEN IN OUR VOCABULARY.
We do not seem to have the will to win.
Doug Free permission granted to reprint.
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Uncle Mike
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